🔗 Share this article

Seven years ago, it took just a short phrase to ignite the party's annual gathering and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. Although not exactly stirring rhetoric, the words were greeted with rapturous applause as delegates rose in an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his speeches having such an effect. All he had said was: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

During that deeply polarized period in 2018, departing from the prepared script in this way was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments of his party. With that single address, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he would later replace.

The Shift in Position and Settled Issues

In the years since, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. An early move after taking over in 2020 was to declare the EU question had been settled by the 2019 general election. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, despite polling evidence suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on Europe

Yet, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled party leader. And, if EU relations may not be the central crisis of British politics, a lid which was firmly shut for five years is beginning to rattle once more.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up the rhetoric regarding the damage caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool to criticize the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal negotiated with the EU in 2024 offers economic benefits measured in fractions of a percent.

Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome entrenched interior ministry opposition to an expansive version of a growth-enabling program for young people by which youths can move between Britain and Europe to study or work.

The deputy prime minister muses openly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of joining a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

Although the Europe minister, the minister in charge of EU policy, now present at every cabinet meeting, insists the firm boundaries are still in place, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. One idea involves declaring the commencement of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if securing a fresh mandate.

Starmer's Deep-Seated Doubts

However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again by warning a return to a European customs area could undermine the commercial agreements with America, which he views as signature achievements of his government.

Reportedly that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. First, he believes any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult as ministers are busily de-aligning from European rules across a range of policy areas, like environmental standards.
2. Second, the exorbitant price set for the UK to join the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has led British officials that former EU partners have little interest in offering favorable terms with Britain and are more focused on demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is viewed by some influential figures in Downing Street as a reason for Britain to keep its distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Document and Strategic Considerations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper claims Europe faces “civilizational erasure” due to immigration. It contains only one reference of the UK, found on a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in our politics to foster the growth of nationalist movements.

But, far from concluding that this renders America an undependable ally, the government reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter and The Ghost from the Past

All of which returns us to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not a pitch to become leader but simply an attempt to preserve the possibility of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, back then, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he currently seems to reject.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street have noticed that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would stand in any leadership election, is among a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, maintain she refuses to comment on her position on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Clear Risk & A Prudent Reminder

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject significant moves towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters reside.

It would be prudent for Starmer to remember the impact that a short phrase had on his career seven years ago. Potential pathways for a big offer on EU relations which the PM should not “rule out”; he should explore them personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.